Bitcoin traded near $61,200 and Ethereum near $1,650 on Thursday, July 2, 2026, both recovering from multi-month lows one day after Citigroup cut its 12-month targets on the two largest cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin gained 2.17% on the session and Ethereum 2.42%, a relief bounce off this week's floor near the lowest levels since late 2024. Citi lowered its Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and Ethereum to $2,240 from $3,175, citing record ETF outflows and stalled US crypto legislation. My Bitcoin and Ethereum price prediction stays bearish: the bounce is a retest from below, not a reversal.Follow me on X for real-time Bitcoin and Ethereum analysis: @ChmielDkWhy Are Bitcoin and Ethereum Falling? Citi Cuts Both TargetsCitigroup's downgrade landed on July 1, with the bank slashing its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption to zero from $10 billion. Bitcoin (BTC) ETF flows have turned negative, down about $3.3 billion so far in 2026, and Citi expects broader adoption to stall until a new catalyst arrives. The bank also flagged slow progress on US crypto legislation and the risk of selling by digital asset treasury companies. Its bear case values Bitcoin at $53,000 and Ethereum at $1,094 over the next year.Paul Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, called June's roughly $4 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows "part of a wider portfolio reallocation rather than a structural loss of confidence." Howard argued that investors rotated into higher-conviction bets, particularly high-profile IPOs and equities offering more immediate upside. Elevated rates and geopolitical uncertainty pushed institutions to trim exposure to higher-volatility assets, he added.The selloff has a clear structure:Citi's cut: 12-month Bitcoin target down to $82,000 from $112,000, Ethereum to $2,240 from $3,175ETF inflow assumption: reduced to zero from $10 billion, with 2026 flows already down $3.3 billionRecord redemptions: US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $4 billion in June, the largest monthly outflow on recordCapital rotation: allocators moved into the SpaceX IPO and AI equities, draining crypto liquidityStalled legislation: no progress on US digital asset market structure to anchor institutional allocationsBitcoin Technical Analysis: The $60,000 Trendline Holds, for NowMy chart shows Bitcoin bouncing 2.17% off the $59,900 shelf, defending both this week's low and the ascending trendline that has framed price since the February bottom. Wednesday's long candle rejected the move under $60,000 and closed back near $61,200, a bullish wick on the daily. That candle and the trendline confirm my Tuesday analysis rather than contradict it. The $60,000 zone is broken weekly support, and price is now retesting it from below.Two exponential moving averages cap the tape. The 50 EMA sits at $66,144 and the 200 EMA at $76,037, both above spot and both sloping down, the bearish stack that has defined Bitcoin since February. In 15 years reading daily charts, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com (my analyst page), a bounce into a falling 50 EMA is a sell candidate until price reclaims it.As my Tuesday analysis detailed, last week's weekly close below $60,000 flipped former support into resistance under the polarity principle and broke the ascending trendline drawn from December 2022 lows. My primary target stays at $44,100, the 100% Fibonacci extension of January's decline and a 25% drop from spot, a level I first mapped in my earlier $45,000 forecast. The first shelf below sits at $53,700, the summer 2024 low.A weekly reclaim of $60,000 and the 200 EMA near $76,000 is what invalidates the bear case.Ethereum Technical Analysis: Consolidating Below the $1,800 ShelfEthereum (ETH) added 2.42% to $1,648 on Thursday, but my chart shows price consolidating below the 2026 lows near $1,800, the shelf marked by the $1,761 level. The rebound has not changed the structure. Local support sits at $1,550, the floor set by the early June lows, and a daily close below it opens the path lower.The moving average grid is stacked against ETH. The 50 EMA runs at $1,809 and the 200 EMA at $2,275, both well above spot and both pointed down. Spot trades nearly 38% under the 200 EMA, a gap that measures how far the Ethereum downtrend has stretched. Ethereum sits roughly 66% below its August 2025 record, and until it reclaims the $1,809 average, every rally is a lower high in my framework.My two bearish targets still wait for a print. The first is $1,407, the April 2025 low I marked as Target 1. The second is the round $1,000 handle near the $1,074 November 2022 low, Target 2 on my chart. As my February Ethereum analysis mapped, the $1,760, $1,400, and $1,000 levels form the descending target stack, and my November forecast flagged the same $1,400 April zone as the medium-term destination.Maxime Seiler, CEO and Co-Founder at STS Digital, reads the weakness as flow-driven. He called June's drop "less macro and more a simple lack of fresh capital," pointing to the SpaceX IPO pulling allocation out of crypto entirely. Seiler sees institutions still deploying, only slower, with the AI narrative and the SpaceX listing offering cleaner return asymmetry than a range-bound market.How Low Can Bitcoin and Ethereum Go? Price PredictionsCiti's revised numbers sit above my chart targets but below consensus bull calls, and each reads differently against my levels. Citi's $82,000 Bitcoin base case assumes flat ETF flows, a level my structure reaches only on a weekly reclaim of $60,000 first, which has not happened. Its $53,000 bear case sits just above my $44,100 target, so on the downside my chart is more aggressive than Citi's. For Ethereum, Citi's $2,240 base case would need ETH to clear the $1,809 and $2,275 EMAs, a move the chart shows no sign of, while its $1,094 bear case aligns almost exactly with my $1,000 Target 2.The bull case leans on institutions stepping in lower. Paul Howard expects the $50,000 region to attract renewed institutional interest, a level that sits between my $53,700 shelf and my $44,100 target. Maxime Seiler sees the four-year cycle intact and argues capital returns once regulatory clarity and price momentum realign. Standard Chartered's prior $7,500 Ethereum target and Bernstein's $150,000 Bitcoin call remain the far bull markers, both requiring a macro turn neither chart confirms.FAQ, Bitcoin and Ethereum Price PredictionWhy did Citi cut its Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets?Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and Ethereum to $2,240 from $3,175 on July 1, 2026. The bank cut its expected net ETF inflows to zero from $10 billion, citing negative flows, weak investor appetite, and stalled US crypto legislation. Its bear case values Bitcoin at $53,000 and Ethereum at $1,094.How low can Bitcoin go in 2026?My chart targets $44,100, the 100% Fibonacci extension of January's decline and a 25% drop from the $61,200 spot price. The first support shelf sits at $53,700, the summer 2024 low. A weekly close reclaiming $60,000 and the 200 EMA near $76,000 would invalidate that bearish path and shift focus higher.How low can Ethereum go?My two bearish targets are $1,407, the April 2025 low, and the round $1,000 handle near the $1,074 November 2022 low. Ethereum trades below its 50 EMA at $1,809 and its 200 EMA at $2,275, with local support at $1,550. A daily close below $1,550 opens the path toward those targets.Are the Bitcoin ETF outflows a structural problem?Paul Howard of Wincent views June's roughly $4 billion in outflows as portfolio reallocation, not lost conviction, with capital rotating into IPOs and equities. Maxime Seiler of STS Digital ties the drop to a lack of fresh capital after the SpaceX IPO. Both expect flows to return once regulation and momentum realign.What would reverse the crypto selloff?A reversal needs three things: ETF outflows turning to sustained inflows, progress on US crypto market structure legislation, and a friendlier macro backdrop. On my charts, Bitcoin must reclaim $60,000 and the 200 EMA near $76,000, and Ethereum must clear its $1,809 50 EMA, before the bearish structure flips. This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.

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